Don’t let one bad hour make a long-term decision for you.
A lot can change in one day. Sometimes in one hour.
That is exactly why now is not the time for emotional decisions.
You may hear from us a little more than usual right now, and that is intentional. When things feel uncertain, people deserve real communication, real perspective, and real strategy. A login screen is not advice. Silence is not a plan. Our job is to show up, protect, and advise when it matters most.
Here is what matters right now.
Mortgage Rates
For those in fixed mortgages, there is not a lot changing right now that would justify a big reaction.
For those in variable mortgages, we are not seeing a strong reason to change course today either. Variable rates are still sitting meaningfully below fixed rates, so for many borrowers there is still a clear gap there. Until fixed rates move materially lower, more into that low-to-mid 3% range rather than where they sit today, we do not see a compelling reason to make an emotional switch just because the headlines are loud.
That said, renewals, refinances, purchases, and debt restructuring are never one-size-fits-all. This is where strategy matters. The right mortgage decision depends on your timeline, your cash flow, your goals, and what else is happening in your financial life.
Investment Markets
This is where people can do the most damage to their long-term results.
“Peak to trough” is simply the move from a market high to the lowest point of a pullback. It feels uncomfortable when you are living through it. But if you panic near the trough, you turn temporary volatility into a real loss.
The proof is in the pudding: markets can sell off fast, and they can rally just as fast. That is exactly why you do not try to time every headline. You do not throw away a long-term strategy because of a short-term fear. You stay disciplined. You stay invested according to your plan. And if something truly needs to be adjusted, it should be done thoughtfully, not emotionally.
Also, a friendly reminder: if headlines make you nervous, checking your investments every day usually does not help. A portfolio is a long-term tool, not a live scoreboard. This is when active advice earns its keep, with calm, deliberate decision-making instead of reactionary moves.
Ontario Real Estate
Real estate does not react overnight, but it does react.
One of the leading indicators we watch is the stock market, because markets often begin pricing in where confidence may be headed before housing does. If confidence continues to stabilize, that can become a very positive signal for what comes next in Ontario real estate.
And make no mistake: pent-up demand is real. We see it. We feel it. There are people waiting for clarity, waiting for confidence, and waiting for the right moment. The people who tend to do best when the market turns are usually the ones who already had a strategy in place before the rush starts.
That means a plan for financing, timing, price point, next steps, and long-term goals. Not a blanket solution. A strategy built around your life.
The message right now is simple: hold steady.
One day can make a huge difference. One hour can make a huge difference.
Do not let a noisy week talk you out of a smart long-term plan.
We are here, we are watching closely, and we are speaking up because this is exactly when advice should show up.
For those interested in the more technical side, keep reading.…
In the morning of` April 8, global risk sentiment shifted sharply back to “risk-on” after news of a two-week ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, along with the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. That matters because the Strait is one of the most important energy shipping routes in the world, and the immediate market reaction was clear: oil dropped hard, inflation concerns eased, and global equity markets rallied fast.
That is the first point worth understanding. Markets do not wait around politely for everyone to feel comfortable. They move quickly, they reprice quickly, and one day — sometimes one hour — can change the tone entirely.
What we saw today was not subtle. Germany’s DAX was up roughly 5 percent. Japan’s Nikkei finished up about 5.4 percent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained around 2.5 percent. U.S. equity futures were pointing to a gain of roughly 2.7 percent before the open. Even with Canada being a little more muted due to the makeup of our market and the role energy plays in it, the signal globally was still the same: investors were quickly pricing in less short-term risk.
The biggest reason for that rally was oil. With supply disruption fears easing, oil prices fell sharply, in the range of roughly 13 to 17 percent depending on the contract and timing. When oil drops that quickly, markets immediately start recalculating near-term inflation pressure, central bank expectations, and overall risk appetite. That is the mechanism. It is not emotion alone. It is repricing.
This is also why we continue to say hold steady.
People often assume the danger is the market falling. In reality, the bigger danger for most investors is reacting emotionally at the wrong time. “Peak to trough” simply means the move from the high point of the market down to the low point of a pullback. That drop feels awful in real time, but if you make a decision near the trough, you turn temporary volatility into a permanent mistake. Then the recovery comes, and you are no longer participating in it.
That is exactly what today reminds us of. Markets can be down hard, then up hard, in very short order. If your strategy changes every time the headlines do, it is not really a strategy. It is just stress with Wi-Fi.
This is where active oversight matters. What needs to be done should be done thoughtfully, based on planning, valuations, rebalancing, tax positioning, cash needs, and long-term objectives — not because the news cycle had a meltdown before breakfast. That is when active wins. Not because it chases noise, but because it knows when not to.
Now, on the mortgage side, the backdrop is also important.
The Bank of Canada’s overnight rate remains at 2.25 percent. Prime is sitting around 4.45 percent. Best advertised 5-year fixed mortgage rates are around 4.04 percent, while best advertised 5-year variable rates are around 3.35 percent. That leaves a spread of about 0.69 percent in favour of variable.
That spread matters.
For those currently in fixed mortgages, there is not a lot changing at this moment that would justify a major reaction. For those in variable, we are still not seeing a compelling case to make a change today simply because the headlines have been loud. Variable remains aggressively below current fixed options. If we start to see fixed rates move down into the low-to-mid 3 percent range, then that discussion becomes more interesting. But as things sit today, the math is still leaning the way we have already been discussing.
It is also important for people to understand that fixed and variable rates do not move for the same reasons.
Variable mortgages are more directly influenced by Bank of Canada policy. Fixed mortgages are more tied to bond markets and future inflation expectations. So when markets suddenly believe inflation pressure may ease, fixed-rate pricing can shift before the Bank of Canada actually does anything. That is why mortgage strategy should not be based on one headline or one opinion. It should be based on structure, timing, cash flow, and the role the mortgage plays in the rest of your financial life.
Ontario real estate is the third piece, and this is where things get especially interesting.
At the provincial level, February remained soft. Ontario recorded 9,425 sales, down 8.1 percent year over year. New listings were 24,145, down 11.6 percent. The average sale price came in at $802,601, down 5.2 percent, while the MLS Home Price Index benchmark was $746,900, down 6.7 percent year over year.
On the surface, that still looks like a sluggish market.
But when you look closer, especially at the GTA, the story starts to shift. In March, GTA home sales were 5,039, up 1.7 percent year over year. New listings were 14,442, down 16.7 percent. The average selling price was $1,017,796, still down 6.7 percent year over year, and the MLS HPI was down 7.4 percent.
That combination matters more than people realize.
Sales increasing while new listings decrease is often one of the earliest signs that conditions are tightening beneath the surface. Real estate does not react overnight the way stocks do, but it does react. It moves through financing confidence, buyer psychology, seller timing, pre-approvals, and inventory. It lags, but it responds.
That is why we often watch the stock market as a leading indicator for housing sentiment. Not because stocks tell us exactly what house prices will do tomorrow, but because equity markets often react first to shifts in inflation expectations, economic confidence, and interest rate outlook. Housing tends to follow those forces with a delay.
And that delay is exactly where opportunity lives.
The pent-up demand across Ontario is real. We see it, and we feel it. There are buyers waiting. Sellers are still trying to read the room. Families are delaying moves, not cancelling them. Investors are watching financing costs. People are not out of the market. Many are simply paused.
The people who usually do best when things turn are not the ones trying to perfectly call the bottom. They are the ones who had a strategy in place before everyone else decided it was safe again.
That means different things for different people.
For a buyer, it means getting properly pre-approved, understanding your payment range under multiple rate scenarios, and knowing what price band still works even if rates do something annoying. For a seller, it means pricing to the current market, not to the memory of a different one. For someone renewing a mortgage, it means treating renewal like a real opportunity to negotiate, not just signing what shows up in the inbox. For investors, it means stress-testing the plan, not panic-testing your nerves.
The message, technically and practically, is the same:
Hold steady.
Today’s global rally is meaningful. Oil dropping sharply is meaningful. The spread between fixed and variable rates is meaningful. The tightening sales-to-listings relationship in the GTA is meaningful. None of that means you throw your plan out and start guessing. It means you pay attention, stay disciplined, and make decisions based on strategy instead of emotion.
One day matters.
One hour matters.
That is exactly why discipline matters too.
If you want to understand how this specifically affects your mortgage, investment portfolio, or real estate plans, connect with us directly.
If you want to know how this affects your mortgage, investments, or real estate plans specifically, contact us directly by booking a complimentary call by clicking here
CHAD HARMER
Harmer Wealth Management & The Harmer Group | TLR Group
One Team. A Strategy For Your Life.
Mortgage Agent Level 2 | Lic. M190000975
Investment Fund Advisor with Investia Financial Services
Not intended to solicit individuals currently under contract with another advisor or brokerage. This content is for general information only and is not intended as legal, tax, mortgage, real estate, or investment advice. Every scenario should be assessed individually.